就在加拿大任命芬太尼事务专员以应对跨境贩运的几天后，美国海关与边境保护局（CBP）官员在西雅图截获了一批含有超过一磅芬太尼的货物。 Just days after Canada appointed a fentanyl czar to address cross-border trafficking, United States Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officers in Seattle intercepted a shipment containing more than a pound of fentanyl. 西雅图海关官员在周三发布的新闻声明中表示，这批毒品是在一次针对性的执法行动中于一个货运设施内被查获的。执法人员在塑料袋中发现了一种棕色岩石状物质，进一步检测确认其中含有芬太尼。 Seattle customs officials announced the seizure Wednesday in a media release stating the drug was seized during a targeted enforcement operation at a shipping facility. Officers discovered a brown rock-like substance in plastic bags and further testing determined the substance contained fentanyl. 美国海关官员称，其中一个芬太尼包裹的来源地是加拿大。 One of the fentanyl packages originated in Canada, U.S. customs officials said. “芬太尼是一种极其危险的合成毒品，正在侵蚀我们的社区。”西雅图CBP区域港口主任Rene Ortega表示。 “Fentanyl is an extremely dangerous synthetic drug that plagues our communities,” said Rene Ortega, the CBP area port director for Seattle. “CBP采用多种手段来维护国家安全。对货运设施的精准执法行动，有助于防止危险毒品和合成药物进入我们的街头和社区。” “CBP uses a variety of techniques to keep our nation safe. Targeted operations in shipping facilities help keep dangerous narcotics and synthetic drugs off our streets and out of our communities.” 此次缉获行动发生之际，加拿大刚刚宣布设立芬太尼事务专员，旨在应对日益严峻的毒品危机，并打击毒品贩运，特别是针对美国的毒品走私。而与此同时，美国总统Donald Trump持续向加拿大施压，要求其加强管控。 The seizure follows Canada’s recent announcement of a dedicated fentanyl czar, a move aimed at addressing the growing crisis and cracking down on drug trafficking, particularly to the U.S. as U.S. President Donald Trump continues to pressure Canada to tighten its controls.

令人沮丧，令人心碎。这是Tetiana Prykhodko在听到美国总统Donald Trump在与俄罗斯总统Vladimir Putin通话后宣布计划结束乌克兰战争时的第一反应。 Frustrating. Devastating. That’s how Tetiana Prykhodko reacted when she heard about U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans to end the war in Ukraine, following his telephone conversation this week with Russian President Vladimir Putin. 在竞选期间，Trump承诺会迅速结束战争。 During the election campaign, Trump promised to quickly end the war. 周三，Trump表示他与Putin通话一小时，并同意启动和平谈判——两人承诺很快会面对面会晤。 On Wednesday, Trump said he and Putin spent an hour on the phone and agreed to begin peace negotiations — and they promised to meet soon face to face. 最初，Trump并未明确表示乌克兰是否会参与谈判，但周四他确认乌克兰会在谈判桌上。然而，白宫官员表示，乌克兰加入NATO的议题不会被讨论，并且乌克兰要收回战争中失去的约五分之一领土并不现实。 At first non-committal about Ukraine being given a seat at the negotiating table, on Thursday Trump said Ukraine would be there. But officials with his administration have also said NATO membership will not be on the table and it is unrealistic for Ukraine to expect to be given back all the land it has lost to Russia during the war — about a fifth of Ukrainian territory. Prykhodko是战争爆发后逃往加拿大的数万名乌克兰人之一。她表示，所有乌克兰人都渴望和平，但问题是：“代价是什么？” Prykhodko, one of tens of thousands of Ukrainians who fled to Canada following the start of the war, said all Ukrainians want peace, but she asks, “At what cost?” “人们仍然在受苦，仍然在被杀害，尤其是在乌克兰东部。”她的家乡Chernihiv靠近俄罗斯和白俄罗斯边境，在Putin下令入侵的当天，她被迫逃离。 “People are still being killed and are suffering — especially in the eastern parts of Ukraine,” said Prykhodko who was forced to flee her home town of Chernihiv, near the border with Russia and Belarus, on the day Putin ordered his army to invade. Prykhodko补充道：“当电视上说‘你们得收拾行李’时，我并没有当回事。直到我听到了警报声，看到窗外升起的烟雾，我才意识到这不是玩笑，我们决定离开。我在乌克兰西部的姐姐当天打电话给我说：‘你们来我这里吧。’于是我们就走了。” “When all the talking on TV was about, ‘you have to pack,’ I didn’t actually take it seriously,” added Prykhodko. “After I heard the sirens, and after I saw smoke from my window (I realized) it’s not a joke and we decided to move out. I have a sister in the western part of Ukraine and she called me that day and said. ‘You are coming to our place,’ so that is what we did.” “许多附近的村庄遭受了惨痛的经历。小女孩被侵犯，人们被杀害，许多人被囚禁——这些都是可怕的事情。我知道很多悲惨的故事，但真的很难去讲述。” “Lots of nearby villages suffered. Little girls being raped, people were killed, those who were imprisoned — awful things. I know really bad stories and it’s really hard to talk about them,” said Prykhodko. 当她意识到战争远比Putin最初宣称的要漫长时，她的家人申请并获得了加拿大签证。“我丈夫的姐姐在这里，她告诉我们：‘你们过来吧。’” Realizing the war would last a lot longer than Putin originally boasted about, her family applied for, and were granted, visas to come to Canada. “My husband has a sister here and she told us, ‘You are coming here.’” Prykhodko表示，他们在加拿大受到了极大的欢迎。“加拿大是个很棒的地方，我们得到了很多支持和关怀。” The reception her family has received in Canada has been “amazing,” said Prykhokdo. “Canada has been a wonderful place to come, and we received so much support and care.” 尽管她和大多数乌克兰人一样渴望有一天能回到家乡，但她对Trump和Putin推动的和平前景并不乐观。 While she, like most Ukrainians, yearns to one day return home, she is not optimistic about the prospects for peace under Trump’s and Putin’s terms. Prykhodko说：“感觉像是走进了死胡同——这不会以好的方式结束，这让我感到悲伤、沮丧和绝望。” It is “like a feeling of no way out — it will never end in a good way and that makes me sad — that is frustrating and devastating,” said Prykhokdo. 乌克兰加拿大代表大会副主席Stephania Romaniuk表示，Trump关于和平条件的言论让卡尔加里的乌克兰社群感到“极度失望——完全被背叛了”。 “An overwhelming sense of disappointment — utter betrayal,” is how Stephania Romaniuk, vice-president of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress, describes the reaction of Calgary’s Ukrainian community to Trump’s comments on the terms for peace. Romaniuk说：“太多生命已经逝去，不仅仅是被杀害的人，还有乌克兰的平民和士兵，他们的生活已经支离破碎。” “There’s so many lives that have been lost, not just people who’ve been killed, civilians, the military in Ukraine, but lives that have been shattered and destroyed,” said Romaniuk. “或许我们会谈判达成和平，但代价是所有人为之奋斗的一切。” “Perhaps we’re going to negotiate a peace, but at the cost of everything that these people have been fighting for.” 尽管她对乌克兰能参与谈判感到欣慰，但她担心Trump正在“落入Putin的圈套”——并表示乌克兰加入NATO才是防止未来俄罗斯侵略的唯一保障。 While she is pleased Ukraine will be at the negotiating table, she fears Trump is “falling into Putin’s trap” — adding NATO membership for Ukraine is really the only guarantee against future Russian aggression. 对Prykhodko一家来说，这就像是一场永无止境的恐怖电影。 For Prykhodko and her family, it’s like a horror movie that won’t stop. “这是我童年的地方，充满我最美好的回忆。我最害怕的是，乌克兰最终会变成俄罗斯。” “The place of your childhood, your best memories. My biggest fear is that Ukraine will become Russia.”

美国总统Donald Trump周四在白宫椭圆形办公室宣布，美国将对进口商品实施广泛的对等关税。 U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Thursday from the Oval Office that the United States will impose extensive reciprocal tariffs on imported goods. “为了公平起见，我决定征收对等关税。也就是说，无论哪个国家对美国征收多少关税，我们将对他们征收相同的税率，不多也不少。”Trump在签署行政命令时表示。 "For the sake of fairness, I have decided to impose reciprocal tariffs. This means that whatever tariff a country charges the United States, we will charge them the same amount—no more, no less," Trump stated while signing the executive order. Trump表示，具体税率将根据各国对美国产品征收的关税而有所不同。 Trump explained that the tariff rates will vary depending on the rates imposed by other countries on U.S. goods. “在几乎所有情况下，他们对我们的征税远高于我们对他们的征税。但这种情况将结束。”他说道。 "In most cases, they charge us significantly more than we charge them. But those days are over," he declared. 白宫官员在与记者的电话会议上表示，这些关税不会立即生效，但可能会在几周内开始实施，美国贸易和经济团队正在研究各国的关税和贸易关系。 A White House official told reporters that while the tariffs would not take effect immediately, they could be implemented within weeks as Trump’s trade and economic team examines tariff structures and trade relationships. 行政命令内容 What does the order say? 行政命令指出，这项新的关税政策“将覆盖广泛范围，审查所有与美国贸易伙伴的非对等贸易关系”。 The executive order stated that the new tariff approach "will have a comprehensive scope, reviewing all non-reciprocal trade relationships with U.S. trading partners." 该命令将“非对等贸易关系”定义得非常广泛，包括对美国产品的关税、对美国企业、工人和消费者的税收及非关税壁垒，以及“导致汇率偏离市场价值的政策和做法”。 The order defines "non-reciprocal trade relationships" broadly, encompassing tariffs on U.S. goods, taxes and non-tariff barriers affecting American businesses, workers, and consumers, as well as "policies and practices that distort exchange rates." 行政命令指出，如果美国贸易代表认为某国“对市场准入施加了不公平限制”，则该国将被视为存在非对等贸易关系。 According to the order, a country will be deemed to have a non-reciprocal trade relationship if the U.S. Trade Representative determines that it imposes "unfair restrictions on market access." 此外，该命令将“非关税壁垒”定义为“任何政府实施的措施、政策或非货币壁垒，限制、阻碍或妨碍国际商品贸易”。 The order further describes "non-tariff barriers" as "any government-imposed measure, policy, or non-monetary restriction that limits, prevents, or obstructs international trade in goods." 经济学家，包括加拿大银行最近的一份报告，警告称，全球贸易冲突将导致全球经济增长放缓。 Economists, including a recent Bank of Canada report, have warned that a global trade conflict could slow worldwide economic growth. 加拿大行业反应 Canadian industry reacts 加拿大商会在声明中表示，Trump的决定是“破坏基于规则的国际贸易秩序的一步，而这种秩序使西方世界，尤其是美国，更加繁荣和高效”。 The Canadian Chamber of Commerce stated that Trump’s move was "a step toward dismantling a rules-based international trade system that has made much of the Western world, particularly the United States, more prosperous and productive." “破坏长期以来互利互惠的贸易模式，并用适得其反的关税取而代之，对美国和加拿大的经济成功毫无意义。关税本质上是税收，会推高商品和服务的成本。它们不是——正如总统所说的——无尽的财政收入来源。”商会主席兼CEO Candace Laing在声明中表示。 "Disrupting long-standing, mutually beneficial trade relationships with counterproductive tariffs makes no economic sense for either the U.S. or Canada. Tariffs are essentially taxes—they increase the cost of goods and services. They are not, as the President suggests, an endless source of revenue," said Candace Laing, President and CEO of the chamber. Laing敦促加拿大政府改善国内省际贸易，并确保本国法规能够吸引投资。 Laing called on the Canadian government to improve interprovincial trade and ensure regulations in Canada encourage investment. 什么是对等关税？ What are reciprocal tariffs? 在经历数周的报复性关税争议后，许多人开始关注“对等”关税的含义。 Following weeks of discussion about retaliatory tariffs, many are now questioning what exactly “reciprocal” tariffs entail. Trump尚未明确界定这一概念的具体含义。 Trump has not provided a precise definition of the term. 目前仍不清楚该命令是否仅适用于匹配关税，还是也包括其他被视为出口障碍的外国税收。 It remains uncertain whether the order applies strictly to matching tariffs or if it extends to foreign taxes Trump perceives as trade barriers. 总体而言，对等关税似乎是指针对他国对美国产品征收的关税，进行价值或原则上的对等反制。 Broadly speaking, reciprocal tariffs appear to be designed to mirror either the value or intent of tariffs imposed by other nations on U.S. goods. 这与加拿大通常所说的报复性关税不同，后者主要用于针对美国对加拿大的新关税进行反制。 This differs from what is commonly referred to as retaliatory tariffs in Canada, which are meant to counter new U.S. tariffs imposed on Canadian goods. 例如，加拿大并未对美国商品普遍征收关税。如果Trump下个月兑现对加拿大商品征收25%关税的威胁，那将不是对等关税，因为加拿大目前没有类似的关税政策。 For instance, Canada does not impose broad tariffs on U.S. goods. If Trump follows through with his threat of a 25% tariff on Canadian products next month, that would not be a reciprocal tariff, as Canada has no matching tariffs in place. 不过，加拿大已经制定了一份报复性关税清单，若美国实施新关税，加拿大政府将立即采取反制措施。Trudeau表示，该关税清单旨在最大程度减少对加拿大的负面影响，同时对美国消费者造成压力。 However, Canada has prepared a list of retaliatory tariffs that will be imposed in direct response if necessary. Trudeau has stated that these tariffs are designed to minimize harm to Canadians while maximizing pressure on American consumers. 关税将如何实施？ How will tariffs be applied? Trump提名的商务部长Howard Lutnick表示，政府将逐个国家进行评估。他预计研究工作将在4月1日前完成。 Howard Lutnick, Trump’s nominee for Commerce Secretary, said the administration will assess each country individually and aims to complete its studies by April 1. Trump承认，短期内商品价格可能会上涨，但他坚称“关税是好事”。 Trump acknowledged that prices may rise in the short term but insisted that "tariffs are great." 白宫官员表示，政府将首先解决最“严重”的问题，包括贸易顺差最高、关税率最高的国家。 A White House official said that the administration will prioritize addressing the most “egregious” issues, including countries with the largest trade surpluses and highest tariffs. 目标国家包括中国、日本、韩国和欧盟。Trump政府希望避免“一刀切”模式，而是采取更具针对性的关税措施。 Countries targeted include China, Japan, South Korea, and the European Union. The administration aims to avoid a “one-size-fits-all” approach in favor of more tailored tariffs.

由于美国总统Donald Trump提议的关税带来了经济不确定性，B.C.省政府正收紧财政支出。 Economic instability caused by U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs has led the B.C. government to tighten its budget. 财政部长Brenda Bailey周四宣布，在3月4日省级预算公布之前，政府将暂停在选举中承诺的$1,000补贴。 Finance Minister Brenda Bailey announced on Thursday that the government will put the $1,000 rebate, promised during the election, on hold ahead of the March 4 provincial budget. Bailey表示，这些“鲁莽”且“破坏稳定”的关税影响难以预测。 Bailey stated that the effects of these “reckless” and “destabilizing” tariffs are unpredictable. B.C.省长David Eby去年宣布了这项税务减免政策，原计划向家庭和单亲家长提供$1,000，向个人提供$500。 B.C. Premier David Eby introduced the tax cut last year, which would have granted $1,000 to households and single parents, and $500 to individuals. 然而，由于Trump持续的经济威胁，Bailey表示，他们将暂停该补贴，并对B.C.公共服务部门所有职位实施招聘冻结。 However, in light of Trump’s ongoing economic threats, Bailey said the government will suspend the rebate and implement a hiring freeze across all BC Public Service positions. 不过，支持和解、公平、多元化和包容性的实习项目（原住民青年实习项目、Work-Able、Co-op和青年就业项目）不受影响。 Internship programs that promote reconciliation, equity, diversity, and inclusion—such as the Indigenous Youth Internship Program, Work-Able, Co-op, and Youth Employment programs—will be exempt from the hiring freeze. “显然，B.C.公共服务部门需要采取更果断的措施，以应对持续的财政压力和美国关税的威胁。”政府在其网站上表示。 "It is evident that BC Public Service must take stronger action to address ongoing fiscal constraints and the potential impact of U.S. tariffs," the government stated on its website.

International Students Can Now Work 24 Hours, But Many Struggle With Rising Costs 政策调整：国际学生每周可工作 24 小时 Policy Change: International Students Can Work 24 Hours Per Week 自加拿大移民、难民和公民事务部（IRCC）宣布 国际学生每周校外打工时间从 20 小时增加至 24 小时 以来，已有近三个月的时间。 It’s been almost three months since Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada announced international students can work up to 24 hours per week off-campus, instead of the previous 20 hours. 这一政策变化受到了 部分国际学生的欢迎 ，但也有学生认为 额外的 4 小时仍不足以应对 加拿大日益上涨的生活成本和高昂的学费。 The policy has been seen as a positive change by some international students. However, others agree that the 4-hour increase is still not enough to cover their expenses and tuition with the rising cost of living in the country. 现实困境：24 小时打工限制难以覆盖学费和生活费 Real Challenges: Work Limits Are Still Not Enough 阿娜·劳拉·罗曼（Ana Laura Roman）  来自 古巴和牙买加 ，于 2023 年来到 圣托马斯大学（St. Thomas University）就读。她曾获得STU 校长奖学金（STU Presidential Scholarship） ，该奖学金可 支付她一半的学费 ，约 20,000 加元/年 。Ana Laura Roman came to St. Thomas University in 2023 as an international student from Cuba and Jamaica, where she had earned the STU Presidential Scholarship, which covers half of her tuition, valued at around $20,000 per year. 尽管罗曼的家人最初给予了一些经济支持，但由于牙买加货币 对加元的汇率极低 ，她仍然不得不打工来支付剩余的学费和生活费。 Roman initially received help from her family when she first came to the country, but she still had to find a job to cover the rest of her expenses, as her home country’s currency exchange rate to Canadian dollars is very low. 1 加元相当于 109.39 牙买加元 。One Canadian dollar equals to 109.39 Jamaican dollars. “当时我的部分学费是用牙买加元支付的，损失非常大。”  罗曼说。 “When I got here some of my tuition was paid in JMB [Jamaican dollars] and it’s just really bad,” said Roman. “You lose a chunk of your money when you paid it that way.” 政策变动让国际学生收入大幅缩水 | Policy Change Led To A Sharp Drop In Income 由于加拿大 2022 年劳动力短缺 ， 时任 IRCC 部长肖恩·弗雷泽（Sean Fraiser）  曾宣布 临时政策 ，允许 国际学生在学年期间全职工作 。 Due to labour shortages in 2022, previous IRCC minister Sean Fraiser announced a temporary policy that allowed international students to work full-time during the school year. 这一政策原定于 2023 年 12 月 31 日 到期，后被延长至 2024 年 4 月 。但在 4 月 29 日 ，IRCC 宣布不再延续该政策，并将校外打工时间调整为 24 小时/周 。 The policy was initially set to expire on Dec. 31, 2023, but was extended until April of 2024. However, on April 29, IRCC announced that the temporary policy would not be extended and that the new work limit would be 24 hours per week starting in the fall. 2023 年 ，罗曼在 一边全职上学的同时，每周工作 40 小时 ，担任儿童护理社工，为 残障儿童提供帮助 。 In 2023, Roman was working 40 hours as a social worker taking care of children with disabilities while going to school full-time. 然而，当新规生效后，她的工作时长被限制在 20 小时 ，收入 骤降近一半 。 When the extension ended, Roman had to work within the previous 20-hour limit, which she said severely affected her finances at the time. “这对我打击很大，我的收入从每两周 1,500 加元降到了 800 加元，影响非常大。” “It was pretty brutal, because I [went] from earning maybe $1,500 every two weeks to $800,” said Roman. “It was a very big difference.” 由于在第一年失去了奖学金，她不得不 依靠自己来支付所有学费和生活费 。 After losing her scholarship during her first year, Roman had to find a way to cover her tuition and living expenses by herself. 财政压力下，国际学生被迫削减开支 | Strict Budgets To Cope With Financial Pressure 罗曼表示，她 必须在夏季超负荷工作 ，以攒钱支付下一学年的学费。同时，她还 找了两份校内工作 ，并大幅削减了生活开支。 Roman said she had to work “crazy hours” during the summer to save up for tuition for the next academic year, while also taking two on-campus jobs and cutting expenses. “我给自己制定了非常严格的预算，减少了所有不必要的开支，基本不出去吃饭，所有餐食都自己做。” “I definitely put myself on a very strict budget,” she said. “I cut down on things like luxuries. I wasn’t going out, I wasn’t eating out as much, I was making all my meals at home and so on.” IRCC：国际学生来加拿大是为了学习，而不是为了工作 | IRCC: Students Are Here To Study, Not Work IRCC 表示， 政府研究了其他国家的政策，并发现国际学生的学业成绩会因过度工作而受到影响 。The IRCC said they came to this decision after extensive research, looking at the needs of students, policies in other countries and additional research that “has shown that academic outcomes suffer the more a student works while studying.” “国际学生来加拿大的首要任务是学习，而不是工作。”  ——IRCC 部长马克·米勒（Marc Miller）“However, first and foremost, people coming to Canada as students must be here to study, not work.” — IRCC Minister Marc Miller 国际学生：希望政府听到我们的声音 | International Students: We Want The Government To Hear Us 罗曼承认，之前每周 40 小时的工作确实影响了她的学业，她也因此失去了奖学金。但她认为，政府应允许国际学生 每周至少工作 30 小时 ，因为很多人为了 追求更好的生活 ，付出了巨大的经济努力。 Roman acknowledged that the previous hours increase affected her academic performance, but she believes international students should be able to work more – at least 30 hours a week – due to the financial efforts they make to pursue a better life. “我们是自愿来到加拿大的，我们放弃了家乡的舒适环境，为的是在这里创造更好的未来。” “We want to be here. We chose to leave the comfort of our homes and families to be here and to make this country a better place one way or another.” 她希望政府能够 认真倾听国际学生的需求，并提供更多支持 ，帮助那些 经济困难的学生更好地适应加拿大的生活 。 She hopes the IRCC and universities will provide more support for students from struggling backgrounds, helping them better adapt to life in Canada.

长期以来，加拿大房屋建筑行业高度依赖 美加墨自由贸易 ，许多关键建筑材料（如 HVAC系统、钢材、石膏板等 ）都依赖从美国进口。而新关税政策的推出，将彻底 打乱这一供应链 。 “我们的供应链已经适应了零关税的环境，”加拿大知名住宅开发商Minto集团 首席执行官 Michael Waters  表示， “但现在一切都被颠覆了。” 原定于 2月6日（本周二）正式实施的关税政策，加拿大政府随即宣布对美国产品展开反制措施 ，涉及 厨房电器、地板材料、门梁、预制地板组件 等。然而，在 2月5日（周一）下午，加拿大总理贾斯廷·特鲁多（Justin Trudeau）宣布，美方已同意暂缓关税 至少 30天 。 建筑开发商紧急寻找新供应链，成本或上涨4% Minto集团  目前在 维多利亚、卡尔加里、多伦多和渥太华 等地 建设约3000套住宅 。 Waters 表示，公司正努力寻找 替代的供应商 ，但这一调整 需要时间 ，并可能导致 建筑成本增加 ，工期延误。 “我们正在重新评估整个供应链，关税可能使成本上升约4%，但最终影响可能更大。”  另一家房地产开发商 Fitzrovia Real Estate  的首席执行官 Adrian Rocca  表示。 Fitzrovia 目前正在 多伦多地区建设12座高层住宅 ，而这些项目所需的 玻璃窗、机械设备、电力设施 ，都严重依赖美国进口。 “我们仍在分析影响，这可能引发一系列未能预见的连锁反应。”  Rocca 说道。 建筑业已受高利率和供应链问题困扰，关税将雪上加霜 即使 没有关税 ， 加拿大房屋建筑行业 早已因多种因素陷入困境，包括： 高利率 ——借贷成本大幅上升，开发融资难度加大； 市政开发费用上涨 ——政府审批费用增加，推高项目成本； 疫情影响 ——供应链危机导致材料短缺，项目工期延误。 加拿大机械承包商协会（Mechanical Contractors Association of Canada）  表示，若关税最终实施，建筑行业将面临更大的挑战。 协会首席运营官 Ken Lancastle  指出，加拿大建筑业 高度依赖 美国生产的 暖通空调（HVAC）系统、制冷设备 等，虽然 可以尝试寻找其他国家供应商 ，但这一过程可能 需要很长时间 ，且成本可能更高。 “目前行业已经面临劳动力短缺和住房危机，建筑公司必须迅速调整策略，但这并不容易。”  Lancastle 说道。 房地产市场或将遭遇“二次打击” 经济学家警告称， 如果美加贸易战升级，加拿大可能陷入经济衰退 ，这将使 房地产行业的投资活动更加低迷 。 近年来，公寓预售市场主要由投资者主导 ，根据 Urbanation Inc.  数据， 约70%的公寓预售（楼花）由个人投资者购买 。然而，由于 租金回报率下降 ，越来越多投资者开始撤出市场。 2023年，多伦多-汉密尔顿地区的新公寓预售量 已降至 近30年来最低水平 ，其中主要原因包括： 租金无法覆盖贷款和管理费用 ，投资者难以盈利； 房价增值空间收窄 ，不再像过去那样快速上涨。 “贸易战可能会给新公寓市场带来新的冲击。”   Urbanation 公司总裁 Shaun Hildebrand  预测， “关税可能迫使开发商推迟甚至取消新项目的推出。” 他补充道： “当前房地产市场本已因消费者信心低迷和房价高企而承压，贸易战将让情况雪上加霜。” 结论：关税虽暂缓，但风险仍未解除 尽管 美国政府已暂缓关税30天 ，但贸易战的威胁 依然存在 ，市场的不确定性仍在增加。 如果美加贸易摩擦进一步升级， 建筑成本将上升、供应链受损、投资者信心下滑 ，加拿大房地产市场恐面临更严峻挑战。未来一个月，政策走向将决定建筑行业和房地产市场的命运。

Canadians Are Packing Up For Greener Pastures, Emigration Hits Multi-Year High 加拿大人正在收拾行囊，寻找更理想的生活，而这次他们的目的地 不再是 从多伦多到卡尔加里 。根据加拿大统计局（Stat Can）2024年 第三季度 的数据，加拿大的 移民流出（Emigration）出现了大幅增长 ，即居民永久性移居至其他国家的趋势加剧。 Canadians are packing up for greener pastures, and that doesn’t mean Toronto to Calgary. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data for Q3 2024 shows a sharp uptick for emigration, the process of residents leaving to settle permanently in another country. 第三季度通常是移民流出的高峰期，而今年的数字更是创下近年来的新高 。事实上，这一季度的移民外流量是自1967年加拿大正式制定移民制度以来的 第五大季度性流出记录 。 The third quarter is typically big, but this one was one of the largest in years. In fact, the quarterly outflow is the 5th largest since Canada formalized its immigration system back in 1967. 什么是移民流出？| What Is Emigration? 今天我们关注的是加拿大的移民流出情况 。移民流出与移民进入相反，指的是 加拿大居民永久迁往其他国家 。 Today we’re looking at Canada’s emigration outflows. Emigrants are the reverse of immigrants—Canadians that are leaving to settle somewhere else permanently. 政策制定者通常更关注 净移民流动（Net Emigration） ，即流入和流出的总体平衡。但这种方式忽略了移民流出的深层次影响，我们称之为**“人力资本畜牧模式”**——即政府只关注人口总数，而不关心这些人为什么离开、他们的社会贡献或技能水平。 Policymakers typically ignore this number in favor of net emigration, which is the balance of flow. We call this the human capital livestock approach—it doesn’t matter what the person does or why they’re leaving, they just want more than less. 这种方法存在诸多问题，其中 最关键的是政府未能重视人口留存 。 This is problematic for a lot of reasons, but the biggest is the fact they’re not worried about retention. 移民外流背后的风险：生活质量的恶化？| A Sustained Increase Can Indicate Erosion In Quality of Life 持续增长的移民外流可能意味着生活质量正在下降 。即使部分人未来可能会选择回流，但 他们返回时的职业阶段、经济贡献可能与离开时不同 ——比如，一个高技能劳动者离开后，回流的可能是退休人士，这种人口流动并不对等。 A sustained increase can be related to an erosion in quality of life. Those returning aren’t necessarily at the same part of their career or contribute differently to the economy—losing a prime aged worker and gaining a retiree isn’t quite the same. 此外，返回的移民可能对 国内现状缺乏了解 ，未必能认识到当初促使他们离开的真正原因。这可能会导致他们在未来再次选择离开。 Those returning may also remember the country differently, and not know the factors driving people away. That may result in those same people leaving at a later date. 如果政府忽视移民流出的原因，并且未能在事态恶化前采取措施， 最终的损害可能会变得不可逆 。 Failing to figure out why people are leaving, or at a faster rate, can result in ignoring damage that may become irreparable by the time it’s addressed. Risk happens fast. 加拿大缺乏全面的移民外流数据，官方统计可能被高估 | Canada Lacks Comprehensive Exit Data, Leading To Overestimation 更令人担忧的是，加拿大目前缺乏完善的移民外流统计数据 。政府只有在居民正式申报离境时，才会将其列入移民外流统计，这导致 加拿大高估了留在本国的移民人数 。过去 30年 ，加拿大的移民留存率被 高估了大约六分之一 。 There’s also the issue that we now understand that Canada doesn’t have comprehensive exit data. The country doesn’t consider people have left until they formally declare their absence, resulting in overestimating the immigrants that stayed by roughly 1 in 6 people for at least 30 years. 如果移民外流数据本身被低估，那么“净移民流动”指标并不能真实反映问题的严重性。 Net flows are of little consolation if they underestimate the outflows. 加拿大人正在以创纪录的速度移居海外 | Canadians Are Fleeing At One Of The Fastest Rates On Record 近年来，加拿大的移民外流呈现 稳步上升趋势 。2024年第三季度，移民流出人数达到 29,100人 ，比上季度增长 11.1% ，比去年同期增长 3% 。 Canadian emigration had been on a steady climb over the past few years. The volume saw quarterly growth of 11.1% to 29,100 people in Q3 2024. That’s 3% higher than last year. 即使在传统的移民流出高峰—— 第三季度 ，今年的流出人数依然异常高企。这一季度的外流人数是自 2019年第三季度 以来最高的一次。而如果排除2016至2019年的异常年份，加拿大自 1967年 以来从未在第三季度出现如此大规模的移民流出。 Even for the third quarter, this volume was unusually large. It marks the largest volume since Q3 2019, seemingly picking up from where it left off. Outside of 2016 to 2019, Canada hasn’t seen more Q3 emigrants since 1967. 换句话说，加拿大正在经历一场罕见的人口外流潮。这种趋势已经 多年未曾出现 。 In other words, it was the fifth largest 3rd quarter for Canadians to flee the country since the country introduced Immigration Regulations. 加拿大移民体系的历史变迁 | A Look Back At Canada’s Immigration Regulations 值得注意的是，加拿大的移民体系在 1967年 迎来重大改革。 在此之前，加拿大的移民政策存在种族歧视 ，而1967年的改革 引入了积分制（Points System） ，以量化技能、学历和其他关键因素，确保移民能为国家作出贡献。 Those regulations banned immigration based on race and introduced a points system to prefer those who presented higher quantifiable skills and values to the country. 然而，今天的现实是， 加拿大正面临前所未有的人才流失潮 ，这种趋势可能会对经济和社会产生深远影响。 In short, the recent trend is an outlier that Canada hasn’t seen in a friggin’ long time. 结论：加速的人才流失是警讯 | Conclusion: Rising Emigration Is A Warning Sign 加拿大正在经历几十年来最严重的移民外流潮 ，如果这一趋势得不到遏制，可能会影响未来的经济增长、劳动力市场乃至国家竞争力。 Canada is witnessing one of the worst emigration surges in decades, and if this trend isn’t addressed, it could impact economic growth, labor markets, and national competitiveness. 政府需要尽快查明居民流失的根本原因，并采取措施留住高技能人才 ，否则加拿大的人才外流问题可能会变得难以逆转。 The government needs to investigate the root causes of the outflow and take action to retain skilled workers, or Canada’s brain drain may become irreversible.

本周六（2月1日）晚，加拿大总理 贾斯廷·特鲁多  在新闻发布会上宣布了针对特朗普政府 加征关税 的反制措施。 强调美加关系，加拿大不应成为关税目标 杜鲁多首先回顾了 加拿大与美国长期以来的盟友关系 。他提到，从 诺曼底战役 到 伊拉克战场 ，两国士兵曾并肩作战，共同捍卫自由与民主。他强调，加拿大和美国不仅是邻国，更是 共享价值观的朋友 ，加拿大不应成为特朗普关税政策的牺牲品。 驳斥特朗普的边境安全指控 针对特朗普指责 加拿大未能有效控制非法移民 ，杜鲁多回应称： “加拿大的边境管理一直十分严格。事实上，每年非法进入美国的人口中，仅有 1%是从加拿大入境的。特朗普以此为理由对加拿大加征关税，完全站不住脚。” 宣布报复性关税及额外措施 作为回应，杜鲁多宣布 对价值 1550 亿加元的美国产品征收 25% 关税 ，并分阶段实施： 首批 300 亿加元关税  将于 周二  生效。 剩余 1250 亿加元关税  将在 21 天内  实施，以给加拿大消费者和供应链留出调整时间。 此外，加拿大政府正在考虑 非关税反制措施 ，包括 对关键矿产和能源行业的出口限制 ，以进一步保护国家利益。 呼吁全国团结，共同应对挑战 杜鲁多承认，加征关税势必会对 加拿大消费者和企业 带来影响，但他强调，在这样的 困难时期，全国应团结一致，共同应对 。他鼓励加拿大人： “支持本国产品，优先购买加拿大制造的商品，选择国内旅游。每个人都可以用自己的方式，为国家挺身而出。” 加拿大政府将在未来几天继续制定更多应对措施，以 保护本国经济、工人和家庭 。

Trudeau: Canada Ready to Respond If Trump Imposes 25% Tariffs 加拿大总理贾斯廷·特鲁多表示，如果美国总统唐纳德·特朗普明天开始实施25%的进口关税，加拿大已经做好了应对准备。然而，他警告称，这一举措可能会给国家带来艰难时期。 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that Canada is prepared to respond if U.S. President Donald Trump follows through on his plan to impose 25% import tariffs starting tomorrow. However, he warned that such a move could lead to difficult times for the country. “我不会粉饰太平。在接下来的日子和几周里，我们的国家可能会面临困难时期。”特鲁多周五表示。 “I won’t sugarcoat it. Our nation could be facing difficult times in the coming days and weeks,” Trudeau said on Friday. 尽管承认加拿大人可能会感到焦虑，特鲁多向公众保证，联邦政府以及各级政府都会支持他们。 While acknowledging that Canadians may feel anxious, Trudeau reassured the public that the federal government, along with all levels of government, is committed to supporting them. 加拿大的反制计划 | Canada’s Retaliation Plan 加拿大政府已制定三阶段反制策略： The Canadian government has a three-phase retaliation strategy: 针对消费品 ：首先对一小部分美国产品征收关税，例如肯塔基州的波本威士忌和佛罗里达州的橙汁。 Targeted Consumer Goods:  Initial tariffs on a small set of American consumer products, such as Kentucky bourbon and Florida orange juice. 扩大范围 ：对价值370亿美元的美国产品征收关税。 Broader Trade Action:  Additional tariffs on U.S. goods worth $37 billion. 全面措施 ：如果有必要，加拿大将对价值1100亿美元的美国产品实施关税。 Full-Scale Measures:  If necessary, a further $110 billion worth of U.S. goods will be subject to tariffs. 此外，联邦政府还计划推出一项刺激计划，以帮助受关税影响的企业，规模可能与疫情期间的经济援助类似。 The federal government is also considering a stimulus package for businesses affected by the tariffs, similar in scale to pandemic-era relief measures. 对双方经济的影响 | Economic Impact on Both Sides 特鲁多强调，贸易战将对两国经济造成负面影响。根据加拿大商会的分析： Trudeau emphasized that a trade war would negatively impact both economies. According to the Canadian Chamber of Commerce: 加拿大GDP可能收缩 2.6% ，加拿大家庭平均每年损失 1,900美元 。 Canada’s GDP could shrink by 2.6% , costing Canadian households an average of $1,900  annually. 美国经济同样会受到冲击，GDP下降 1.6% ，美国家庭平均每年损失 1,300美元 。 The U.S. economy would also take a hit, with a 1.6%  drop in GDP and an average $1,300  loss per household. 每天有 36亿美元 的商品在加美边境流通。加拿大是 34个美国州 的最大出口市场，支撑着数百万个美国就业岗位。 Every day, $3.6 billion  worth of goods cross the Canada-U.S. border. Canada is the top export market for 34 U.S. states , supporting millions of American jobs. 边境安全与特朗普的理由 | Border Security & Trump's Justification 尽管加拿大已投入 13亿美元 加强边境安全，特朗普仍坚持实施关税。他表示担忧非法毒品和移民过境问题。 Despite Canada's $1.3 billion investment in border security, Trump remains firm on his decision. He cited concerns about illegal drugs and migrant crossings. 加拿大已采取以下措施： Canada has taken the following actions: 边境巡逻直升机  已投入监视任务。 Border Patrol Helicopters  deployed for monitoring. 加强检测手段 ，部署新的缉毒犬队伍和成像技术，以拦截芬太尼。 Enhanced Detection Measures  including new canine units and imaging technology to intercept fentanyl. 特鲁多强调：“我们的边境是安全的。进入美国的芬太尼和非法越境人数中，来自加拿大的不到1%。” Trudeau reiterated: “Our border is safe and secure. Less than 1% of fentanyl and illegal crossings into the U.S. come from Canada.” 美国内部争论与下一步行动 | U.S. Internal Debate & Next Steps 有报道称，特朗普的一些顾问正在考虑其他方案，可能会寻求达成协议，以减轻关税影响。 Reports suggest that some of Trump's advisors are considering alternative approaches, potentially seeking a deal to ease the tariff burden. 然而，特朗普仍然对加拿大和墨西哥表达不满，他表示： However, Trump remains vocal about his dissatisfaction with Canada and Mexico, stating: “墨西哥和加拿大在贸易上从未对我们友好，他们对我们非常不公平。” “Mexico and Canada have never been good to us on trade. They’ve treated us very unfairly.” 特朗普预计将在 美东时间下午3点 签署额外行政命令，可能会公布更多细节。 Trump is expected to sign additional executive orders at 3 p.m. ET , where he may announce further details.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将在周六兑现他对加拿大和墨西哥征收25%关税的威胁，白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特（Karoline Leavitt）表示。 莱维特称，她刚刚在椭圆办公室与特朗普交谈过。此前，路透社报道称，特朗普可能会将对加拿大和墨西哥的关税推迟到3月1日，并提供一个允许两国申请特定进口商品豁免的程序。对此，莱维特表示，该报道是“错误的”。 她表示，特朗普将继续对加拿大和墨西哥实施25%的关税，并对中国进口商品额外征收10%的关税。 “总统说到做到，” 莱维特补充道。 当被问及特朗普是否会对石油进口提供豁免时，莱维特表示：“目前我没有关于豁免的最新消息或具体情况可以提供，但这些关税的细节将在明天24小时内对外公布，届时大家可以自行查看。”

虽然加拿大的民主制度仍然“健全”，且没有“叛徒”的证据出现在议会中，但联邦政府应采取措施，更好地保护民主机构，并让公众更充分地了解外国干预的威胁。这是关于外国干预的公共调查最终报告中的主要结论。 专员玛丽-乔塞·霍格（Marie-Josée Hogue）在周二发布的最终报告中提出了这一观点，此前她曾获得一个月的延长期限。 这份报告共有七卷，向联邦政府提出了51项建议，其中近一半建议应该在下一次大选前考虑实施。 自霍格在16个月前被任命为调查负责人以来，她审查了超过100名证人和60位专家及侨民成员的意见，并研究了“数以万计的文件”，以回应围绕外国干预日益加剧的担忧。 据CTV新闻报道，这里是报告的几个关键点： 议会中“没有‘叛徒’”的证据 霍格的研究在最后阶段增加了一项内容，源于去年6月议会国家安全与情报委员会（NSICOP）的一份震撼报告，指出一些议员“有意或半有意”地参与外国势力干预加拿大事务。 霍格在最终报告中写道：“关于议员可能与外国官员存在问题性关系、判断力差、行为幼稚、甚至道德存疑的合法担忧是存在的。但我没有看到议员与外国国家合谋对抗加拿大的证据。” 她补充说：“虽然一些行为可能令人担忧，但我没有看到议会中存在‘叛徒’的证据。” 霍格指出，调查NSICOP报告中的结论是一项“特别具有挑战性的任务”。 她表示，尽管她审阅了NSICOP报告的机密版本，但她还“请求并审阅了NSICOP没有掌握的额外信息，包括支撑指控的原始情报和操作报告。” 报告还指出，NSICOP报告并未列出涉嫌参与外国干预活动的议员名单，这与一些人的猜测不同。 霍格批评NSICOP报告的结论“比基础情报所能支持的更为明确”，并表示这些措辞强烈的指控对公众造成了误导，使所有议员都笼罩在怀疑的阴影中，削弱了加拿大人对民主制度的信任。 印度是加拿大干预活动中“第二活跃的国家” 霍格5月的初步报告指出，中国是对加拿大构成“最持久和最复杂”外国干预威胁的国家，而最终报告则详细阐述了印度如何成为“第二活跃”的干预加拿大选举的国家。 在过去一年半中，加拿大与印度之间的关系持续紧张。2023年9月，总理贾斯廷·特鲁多在议会表示，有“可信的指控”表明印度政府的特工参与了三个月前在不列颠哥伦比亚省谋杀锡克教分离主义领袖哈迪普·辛格·尼贾尔（Hardeep Singh Nijjar）的事件。 霍格指出，尽管尝试改善加印双边关系的努力已因此事“脱轨”，但印度仍通过驻加外交官及代理人从事干预活动，并可能通过代理人秘密向加拿大政客提供非法资金，以试图支持亲印度的候选人当选或影响当选者。 她补充说：“情报表明，候选人或当选官员可能对干预行为并不知情，且干预行为也未必取得成功。” 报告还提到俄罗斯、巴基斯坦和伊朗也是对加拿大构成外国干预威胁的国家。 外国干预未改变选举结果 霍格的初步报告得出结论，尽管2019年和2021年的联邦选举中确实存在外国干预，但未对整体选举结果造成影响。 她在最终报告中重申了这一结论，并补充说：“尽管任何干预企图都令人担忧，但让我感到安慰的是，这些努力迄今为止的影响极小。” 霍格指出，尽管加拿大高级公务员及国家安全和情报界成员的能力、奉献精神和经验值得认可，但政府在应对外国干预时的表现“远非完美”。

1月23日，美国现货比特币ETF的资金流入持续低迷，因前总统唐纳德·特朗普签署的旨在成立数字资产工作组的行政命令未能满足市场预期。 根据SoSoValue的数据显示，周四，12只现货比特币ETF净流入资金达1.8865亿美元，这是本周以来连续第四天流入量下降，而周初流入曾超过10亿美元。 BlackRock领跑，Grayscale逆势流出 在各大ETF中，贝莱德（BlackRock）的IBIT吸引了最多资金，单日流入达1.546亿美元，连续第五天领跑。紧随其后的是Bitwise的BITB，流入4215万美元。 此外，Invesco Galaxy的BTCO、Grayscale的迷你比特币信托、Fidelity的FBTC以及ARK 21Shares的ARKB分别录得1238万美元、1190万美元、916万美元和835万美元的净流入，维持市场的正向势头。 然而，Grayscale的GBTC成为当日唯一的资金流出者，单日净流出达4994万美元，部分抵消了其他ETF的流入。其余五只ETF则未录得任何资金流入。 比特币价格波动：受政策影响承压 1月23日，比特币投资工具的总日交易量达到95.9亿美元，为历史第二高，仅次于3月5日创下的103.9亿美元峰值。 特朗普于周四签署的行政令，原计划为白宫提供数字资产政策建议，并评估建立政府持有的数字资产储备（包括调查中扣押的加密货币）。但该命令并未如市场预期般设立专门的战略比特币储备，令加密货币市场感到失望。 受此消息影响，比特币价格最初上涨2.7%，达到106,732美元。然而，在市场消化行政命令细节后，情绪逆转，比特币价格下跌近4%，触及102,517美元。随后，比特币价格出现回升，截至目前已上涨2.1%，报104,991美元。