2025年加元可能进一步贬值，经济学家发出警告

专家指出，加拿大元在接下来的几个月可能面临艰难时期，其贬值趋势可能会持续。

Experts suggest that the Canadian dollar is likely to experience challenging months ahead, with its downward trajectory expected to continue.

“我们确实还有下跌的空间，” Corpay首席市场策略师Karl Schamotta表示。

“We certainly have more room to decline,” remarked Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist at Corpay.

最近几周，加元兑美元汇率已跌破70美分，比9月份下跌了近4%。

The Canadian dollar has dropped below 70 cents US in recent weeks, marking a nearly four per cent decline since September.

Schamotta预测，未来几个月对加拿大来说将是“非常动荡的时期”，因为即将上任的美国总统Donald Trump的政策提议引发的不确定性将影响商业投资和消费者信心，这意味着短期内加元将走弱。

Schamotta foresees a “highly turbulent period” for Canada in the coming months, as uncertainties surrounding President-elect Donald Trump’s policy proposals dampen business investment and consumer confidence, resulting in a weaker loonie in the short term.

然而，这并不是唯一的影响因素。

However, this is not the sole contributing factor.

强劲的美国经济正推高美国收益率，远高于加拿大收益率，这吸引了更多投资流向美国。此外，加拿大银行与美联储之间的货币政策差距正在扩大，Schamotta表示。

The robust U.S. economy, driving U.S. yields significantly higher than those in Canada, is luring more investments to the U.S. Meanwhile, a growing divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve is also at play, Schamotta explained.

“这意味着全球投资者对加元的吸引力大幅减少，”他补充道。

"This makes the Canadian dollar far less appealing to global investors," he added.

上周，美联储宣布四分之一百分点的降息，并预计明年将从此前预期的四次降息减少到两次。与此同时，加拿大银行本月连续第二次大幅降息，将关键利率降至3.25%。

Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve implemented a quarter-point rate cut, projecting a slowdown in rate cuts next year from the previously estimated four to two. At the same time, the Bank of Canada enacted its second substantial rate cut this month, reducing its key rate to 3.25 per cent.

Forexlive的首席货币分析师Adam Button指出，加拿大经济按人均计算持续萎缩，正是这一系列降息的背景。

Adam Button, Chief Currency Analyst at Forexlive, pointed out that Canada’s economy has been contracting on a per-capita basis, providing the backdrop for these rate cuts.

此外，他补充说：“2025年，政府预计人口增长将为负。过去两年，加拿大经济增长的唯一来源就是人口增长，而这一趋势即将逆转。”

Furthermore, he noted, "By 2025, the government forecasts negative population growth. Population growth has been Canada’s sole driver of economic growth in the last two years, and that trend is about to reverse."

Schamotta预测，明年初加元将进一步下跌，并在2025年剩余时间内逐步实现温和回升。

Schamotta predicts a further decline for the Canadian dollar in early 2025, followed by a gradual and modest recovery throughout the remainder of the year.

他说，加拿大银行的降息最终将刺激加拿大房地产市场和消费者的活动。

He stated that the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts would eventually reinvigorate activity in the Canadian housing market and among consumers.

“这应该在明年年底对加元提供一定支撑，”他说。

"This should provide some support for the Canadian dollar towards the end of next year," he remarked.

然而，随着Trump关税威胁的存在，Schamotta表示，交易员们正处于“先卖后问”的模式。

However, with Trump’s tariff threats looming, Schamotta observed that traders are adopting a "sell-first-and-ask-questions-later" approach.

Button指出，加元的故事实际上与美国发生的事情密切相关。

Button noted that the narrative around the loonie is closely tied to developments in the U.S.

“所谓的‘加元弱势’，很大程度上是因为美元走强，”他说。

"Much of the 'Canadian dollar weakness' is actually U.S. dollar strength," he said.

Button还表示：“除非美国经济出现问题，否则我看不到加元有真正反弹的机会。”

"Until the U.S. economy faces a setback, I don’t see a significant opportunity for the Canadian dollar to rebound," Button concluded.