特鲁多岌岌可危：是否会选择退出？

网络图片

加拿大总理贾斯廷·特鲁多似乎正处于政治生涯的悬崖边缘。

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appears to be at the edge of his political career.

特鲁多此前也经历过丑闻风波。一家人去私人巴哈马岛旅行，导致2017年一份令人生畏的道德报告；SNC-Lavalin事件曾威胁到他的政府；2019年选举期间，特鲁多的棕脸和头巾照片掀起轩然大波。

Trudeau has faced scandals before: a family trip to a private island in the Bahamas led to a damning 2017 ethics report; the SNC-Lavalin affair threatened his government; and photos of him in brownface and a turban shook his 2019 election campaign.

但眼下，情况尤为严峻。最新民调显示，特鲁多领导的自由党落后于保守党多达20个百分点。本周，要求特鲁多辞职的自由党议员人数上升至21人，有消息称多达45名议员在闭门会议上签署了呼吁他下台的信件。而本周最大的打击来自副总理兼财政部长克里斯蒂娅·弗里兰公开辞职，这一惊人的举动被认为是对特鲁多的公开反击。

But now, things are particularly dire. The latest polls show Trudeau’s Liberal Party trailing the Conservatives by as much as 20 percentage points. This week, 21 Liberal MPs called for Trudeau’s resignation, and sources say as many as 45 signed a letter behind closed doors urging him to step down. The biggest blow this week came when Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland publicly resigned in a stunning rebuke of Trudeau.

不被授权对媒体发声的消息人士称，特鲁多正在反思自己的政治未来。然而，他在公开场合尚未承诺离开，也许是因为，根据政治、历史和心理学领域的专家分析，“退出”本身是一个艰难的过程。这是一个复杂的内部博弈，在公众面前极其公开地上演，涉及身份与失败、羞辱与体面的权衡，以及公众不满与个人遗产之间的抉择。而与此同时，政坛“鲨鱼”们已经开始环绕。

Sources not authorized to speak to the media say Trudeau is reflecting on his political future. However, he has not publicly committed to stepping down. Experts in politics, history, and psychology say this is because quitting is an inherently difficult process. It involves a torturous internal struggle, playing out in an extraordinarily public way, weighing identity against failure, humiliation against dignity, public discontent against legacy—all while political "sharks" circle.

知道何时退出是一种难题 | Knowing When to Quit Is a Dilemma

“这真的很难，”前安大略省省长凯瑟琳·韦恩回忆她在2018年安省选举时的经历。她在那次选举中惨败，自由党席位从58席骤降至7席后，她辞去了党领袖职务。“整个过程非常残酷，因为作为领导者，我感到自己让很多人失望了，那是一种非常糟糕的感觉。”

“It was really hard,” said former Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne, recalling her experience during the 2018 Ontario election. She suffered a stunning defeat, with the Liberal Party’s seats reduced from 58 to 7, prompting her to step down as party leader. “The whole process was brutal because, as the leader, I felt like I was letting a lot of people down, and that’s a horrible feeling.”

雷蒙德·布莱克（Raymond Blake），里贾纳大学研究20世纪加拿大政治的教授指出，有两个最大的迹象表明领导者该退出了：公众与党内的不满。此外，判断失误和未能满足预期也是信号。

Raymond Blake, a professor at the University of Regina specializing in 20th-century Canadian politics, says the two biggest signs it’s time for a leader to step down are public and party discontent. Judgment lapses and failing to meet expectations are also indicators.

即便如此，许多人仍选择拖延。历史上有许多领导者在“保质期”过后依旧不愿退场的例子。

Even so, many choose to delay. History is full of examples of leaders who stayed on past their expiration dates.

“对于那些曾达到权力巅峰的人来说，放手真的非常困难，”布莱克说道。“离开是一个艰难的决定。”

“It’s really, really tough for anyone who’s at the top of their game to give it up,” Blake said. “Walking away is tough.”

为何“退出”如此难？Why Is Quitting So Hard?

心理学角度来看，职业生涯往往与个人身份深度绑定。据约克大学人力资源管理学院院长玛丽-海伦·巴德沃斯博士分析，辞职意味着放弃一部分身份。

Psychologically, careers often become deeply ingrained in personal identity. According to Dr. Marie-Hélène Budworth, director of York University’s School of Human Resource Management, quitting means leaving behind part of one’s identity.

“做出离开的决定可能是一场艰苦的斗争，”巴德沃斯说道，“因为你要放下的是你的一部分‘自我’。”

“Making the decision to leave can be a real struggle,” Budworth said, “because you’re leaving behind part of your ‘self.’”

对于像加拿大总理这样高度公众化的角色，这种内心的斗争更为剧烈。

For a highly public-facing role like the Prime Minister of Canada, this internal struggle is even more intense.

此外，还有辞职后可能带来的公众影响。

There are also the public consequences of quitting.

“我们生活在一个将辞职等同于失败的世界，”巴德沃斯解释道。“辞职的人似乎是在承认自己无法胜任。”

“We live in a world where quitting is often seen as failure,” Budworth explained. “Quitting seems like an admission that someone couldn’t hack it.”

公众对领导者的记忆通常停留在结束时刻。因此，如果特鲁多在争议中下台，他的遗产将留下永久的污点。

Public memory of leaders often focuses on their endings. Thus, if Trudeau resigns amid controversy, his legacy will bear a lasting scar.

布莱克认为，特鲁多若现在离职，其政治遗产会受损，但若坚持到下次选举并惨败，则会损失更大。

Blake believes Trudeau’s legacy will suffer if he steps down now, but it will suffer even more if he stays and loses in the next election.

特鲁多目前的处境与其他领导人有所不同。与他父亲皮埃尔·特鲁多相比，这次的决策显得尤为艰难。

Trudeau’s current situation differs from other leaders. Compared to his father, Pierre Trudeau, this decision seems particularly challenging.

对于贾斯廷·特鲁多而言，这一决定注定不易。

For Justin Trudeau, this decision is destined to be anything but easy.